Even before the huge growth in social media and video, the ‘view through’ problem wasn't new for display ads, where click through rates have been falling for decades, even while ad spend on the channels has grown. Advertisers are used to spending money on activity like TV and print, and so are familiar with the idea that ads can generate brand impact which is hard to measure. Online we expect more, so as online becomes more like TV, some have said that measurement is going ‘back to the future’.
What has changed in recent years is that one major measurement trick has been removed from the toolbox. This is the 3rd party cookie tracker, which has fallen into disuse following concerns around privacy. Until Apple released ios14, and various browsers changed their cookie settings, it used to be possible to track people who saw your ad but did not click, and actually link into the site traffic and sales, even if they did not click. This is no longer possible to the extent it once was and once Google completely remove third party cookies from their advertising system in 2024, these cookies will finally disappear.
Modelling and testing in the post-cookie era
In the face of this technical shift in ad tracking, and with a growing need to measure Social and Video in particular, statistical and machine learning modelling has come to the rescue, combined with an increased awareness and availability of tools for incrementality testing (‘uplift tests’).
In the end, we have to accept that any kind ‘model’ of what works has to be better than flying blind. What is ironic is that this modelling done well can actually be more accurate than the previous method of cookie based attribution.
With cookies and tracking for Social and Display the problem was almost in reverse – there was over-attribution to impressions! Channels like Facebook/ Meta had to use a 1 day ‘look back’ window to help explain the huge numbers of sales apparently driven by customers who have only briefly viewed 1-2 impressions before making a purchase in the past 24 hours. Any longer would have led to attribution that was just not believable. But did the ads really cause the sale or not? All the hard questions about real sales impact, brand vs performance, and marketing incrementality, are not solved by tracking cookies alone.
So, in some ways the end of cookie tracking will actually be a benefit to analysts trying to measure social media ROI, by taking away the noise of ‘post impression’ conversions, or so called ‘view-throughs’.
Today, for impressions generated by social and display, at Croud we use econometric approaches to analyse how the reach and frequency of impression campaigns interact with lower funnel marketing and sales, to model patterns in how the impressions influence sales over time. This can be baked into click based predictive attribution using machine learning, to produce a credible and accurate full funnel view of all digital marketing channels.
We recommend backing these up with uplift tests, and support geo based testing as a way to validate social media ROI.
How we attributed 25x more sales for Schuh
We help schuh, the leading footwear brand, get a better understanding of the impact of their paid social and display advertising through Meta, YouTube and TikTok.
Croud data scientists combine econometric techniques to complement the impression model with a custom machine learning attribution model which is developed for each client based on their marketing approach and unique data.
Applying this approach for schuh has allowed them to gain a detailed understanding of how Social, Video and Display marketing works together with PPC, Affiliate and Organic channels to drive sales. This technique is used to make adjustments to performance click-led sales reflecting modelled impression effects and including ‘carry-over’ effects from one period to the next, allowing the measurement to pick up hidden responses to Social and Display campaigns which otherwise would get attributed to Direct, Organic and Brand Search.
Croud’s custom attribution platform has proven to be a valuable tool for schuh, allowing them to get the most out of their digital marketing campaigns.
The results have been impressive, allowing a comparison between ‘click only’ and ‘impression driven’ attribution, with the combined effects attributing almost 25 times more sales than the clicks alone. Social Prospecting and Video in particular have much greater attributed sales and revenue, with a reduction in sales attributed to Brand Search, Direct and Organic Search traffic, of around 20%. With Video, the fact that so few users click on ads is a challenge for attribution, where it is clear that an increase in Video views driving a statistically measurable increase in site visitors who convert. Social Prospecting meanwhile gets the best of both worlds, with roughly 50% of visitors buying from clicks to the ads and another passive 50% coming to buy just after seeing ads but not clicking.
The custom attribution platform provided by Croud thus not only enabled schuh to optimise their digital spend for greater efficiency and ROI in PPC and other performance channels, but it also allowed them to measure the effectiveness of their social and display campaigns including the all important impression effects.
Key questions for marketers
If it sounds tricky, well frankly it can be, but brands are now left with little choice in 2024. If you are reading this and looking for an easier way into it, then just remember to separate out the click effects form the impression effects and ask yourself all the same questions you might ask if you were advertising offline –
- Who is my audience?
- What do I really expect them to do in reaction to this campaign? (clue: not necessarily purchase immediately they see the ad)
- What proportion of the audience will response over days and weeks vs immediately (clue: most of them!)
- How do I account for the hidden impression and reach effects which underpin most of the value? (clue: you cannot track it, you cannot ignore it and so you need to model it!)
- How many times will they see my ads and how does frequency of exposure help drive greater value?
- How much of the lower funnel sales activity is actually driven brand awareness generated earlier?
In other words, think about your audience and customers, and how they actually behave, when you measure your impact for social media. You will soon come to understand that true ROI is much higher than just a few clicks on your social ads.
If you are struggling to measure the ROI of your social media marketing efforts, and wish to learn more about how custom attribution and marketing effectiveness could help transform your campaign success, then get in touch.
